This wet year must mean a snowy winter correct?


With last night’s rainfall we have drawn close to the wettest September on record. Given the weather we will have for the rest of the month, we’re almost certainly going to finish off as the second wettest behind the disastrous month we had in 2004. 

We’ve now had rainfall on a whopping 24 of 28 days this month. 6 days brought an inch or more of rainfall. We’ve now almost had almost a month’s more days with rain compared to Seattle, Washington. A statistic that is a bit misleading as while they usually get more days with rain per year, they don’t get thunderstorms and have less rainfall usually than we do in a year. They also have very dry and beautiful stretches of weather from late summer through early fall. 

This has now pushed us closer to the record for the wettest year on record. A record that will be smashed as we still have just over three months left in the year.  

One of the biggest rumors that is being spread through social media and asked to our weather team is that this must mean that we are going to have an extremely snowy winter. What’s interesting about that rumor is that people are ignoring the factor that what is bringing us this rainy weather is a persistent flow of warm, tropical air. You can’t just take the wet without the warmth. But you can’t really make a translation from wet years or summers to snowy winters. It’s just not simple and we can’t make that correlation. So let’s look at the other two years that were very wet. 1996 and 1972. As you can see below both years brought below average snowfall in the winter. 

But as I mentioned, you can’t just make that translation. This just goes to show that the assumption is far from the truth. What the winter will bring is dictated by many things which include ocean temperatures and the growth of snow cover through the beginning of autumn. We’ll discuss that and a lot more in our Wintercast on November 15th. 

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