Here’s a look at NOAA’s winter weather forecast. Their forecast is a little bit harder to understand. It’s what we call a probablistic forecast. In other words the odds of being warm or cold. Using these maps, this October they came out with a forecast that followed along with a developing El Nino.
The temperature forecast showing a greater chance for warmth in the west and north. For us they have us mostly in the equal chances which means the chance for warmth is about as good as the chance for cold weather. As for precipitation, they are showing an active storm track to the south and drier to the north of which is also typical of El Nino years. And as you notice, once again we’re in the equal chances zone.