NOAA releases winter weather outlook


(WTAJ) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service issued its outlook for the upcoming winter season from December 2021 through February 2022. The outlook is mostly based on the reemergence of La Nina.

Here are the details on precipitation:

  • The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley and western Alaska have the greatest chances for wetter-than-average conditions.
  • Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast.
  • The forecast for the remainder of the U.S. shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.
The 2021 U.S. Precipitation Outlook provided by NOAA

Temperature Details

  • Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southern tier of the U.S. and much of the Eastern U.S. with the greatest likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southeast.
  • Below-average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains.
  • The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
Winter 2021 U.S. temperature outlook

Drought Outlook

  • Widespread severe to exceptional drought continues to dominate the western half of the continental U.S., Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin.
  • Drought conditions are forecast to persist and develop in the Southwest and Southern Plains.
  • The Pacific Northwest, northern California, the upper Midwest, and Hawaii are most likely to experience drought improvement.
Winter 2021 U.S. Drought Outlook

Central PA Impacts

The correlation of La Nina’s impacts with the weather for Central PA is much weaker than in other parts of the nation. Some La Nina winters have been very cold and snowy while others have been dry and mild. There are more factors that are involved with our winter weather. We will discuss all of those details in the Wintercast during our winter weather special which airs at 7:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 17th.

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