Most winter weather forecasts are usually based off of an El Nino or La Nina but Chief Meteorologist Joe Murgo Looks at a lot more. The La Nina that was around for the last couple of winters is gone.
An El Nino has now started to develop. This abnormal warming over the tropical pacific has ramifications of weather patterns through the whole world, including us here in central p-a. A winter el ninotends to make for a stronger storm track in the south with milder and drier weather through the northern part of the nation. Though el nino’s influence on us is not as concrete so we look at the other signs.
A blob of warm water has returned to the gulf of alaska. Yep–it’s been called the blob, that’s the nickname for it.
This promotes a ridge in the jet stream into alaska which then opens up a pipeline of arctic air into the mid-section of the nation, close enough that we will get some pushes of very cold air. .
Snow and ice in siberia and canada both play a big role in the growth of winter’s cold. Canadian snowcover grew fast at first, but has leveled off. Siberia had a very slow start to their snow season but this has turned recently. These two are a wash. We’ll have some very cold snaps but we may not have the harshest arctic outbreaks.
Lastly, water temperatures off of the east coast factor in our big storm potential. The waters off of the East Coast are slightly warmer than average but there is cool water closer to greenland. This will increase the odds for a couple of bigger winter storms but they will move quickly off of the coast and prevent long-lasting major storms.
Bigger winter storms—but nothing like the super storm of ’93.